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Hello All, 

I hope that you are enjoying your snow and are going to get some rest tonight. 

There is something that is in the medium range that is going to possibly be the main course, and it has been shown by the 12Z ECMWF, the 18Z GFS, and the 12Z JMA. 

But first, let's take a look at the teleconnections

The telleconnections are looking very good for a possible signifiacnt event for inland areas, as well as areas along the coast. 

North Atlantic Oscillation: The NAO is showing some signs of heading into a neutral/negative phase. The ensembles agree on a drop towards just above neutral. This means that the storm will not speed by the area, it will be relativly slower than recent snow storms, especially last night's. 

Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Arctic Oscillation:

The AO is going to drop significantly through -2 and bottoms out just shy of -3. This means that the cold air will be readily available for the potential storm. 

Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/...

Pacific North/American Pattern

The PNA is looking very favorale in the long range. It is showing a meridianal pattern setting up in a few days, and building a large ridge in the west (increasing the possibility for a low following the Polar Jet Stream and interacting with the Southern Jet Stream Energy by riding the trough down to the gulf. 

Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

Madden Juilian Oscillation: The MJO is currently just entering Phase 5, but as time progresses, the general trend shows the MJO going into Phase 6 and just into phase 7. 

GFS MJO index ensemble plume

Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

So the Teleconnections look decent, so what about those models?

Ok, first off is the ECMWF, or European Model. It shows a monster low off the coast and a fully fledged blizzard for I-95 at hour 186. The 540 Line is well off the coast, and the low's strength is 1000 Millibars (The E-Wall's images of the EURO only goes in 24 hour frames) 

Link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

The 18Z GFS shows the low being supressed to the south, but the fact that it has the storm and it shows potential means a lot at the time. 

Hour 168:


Hour 171:


Hour 174:../GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120121/18/gfs_namer_174_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Links (Links in respective order)

168: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&;prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120121%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=171&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F21%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=277&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

171: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&;prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120121%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_168_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=168&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F21%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=277&nextImage=yes

174: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&;prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120121%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_171_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=171&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F21%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=277&nextImage=yes 

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