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Hello All, I have looked at the CPC Teleconnections (The ones mentioned in my previous blog) and am liking what I am seeing with all of the Teleconnections. Without further ado, let's jump right into it. First off is the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) The latest run of the ensembles show the NAO trending positive but then all the ensembles trending negative towards the beginning of February. The ensembles are in decent agreement with at least a drop to neutral.
Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Do I see this happening, maybe. The probability that the NAO can remain positive for the majority of the winter is very minimal, but I am not biting yet. If the ensembles show the NAO going negative like this a week from now then I will begin to get excited Next up is the AO or the Arctic Oscillation. The AO has been the best Teleconnection so far and is looking better with each ensemble run. All of the ensembles show the AO going negative a good bit to (-2 to -3), and staying negative through the end of the run (yes some ensembles are going slightly positive at the end of this run but the majority of the ensembles are staying negative.
Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/... Next on the list is the PNA, or Pacific North American Pattern. The PNA is shown going negative before finally showing some light at the end of the tunnel and going positive, indicating ridging in the west and troughing in the east. That is indicative of a meridional flow, meaning not a zonal or separate flow of the jet streams. On a good side note, the PNA ensemble runs have been going less and less negative each time with every run, and have been going positive sooner and sooner in time.
Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif The MJO is also showing a favorable turn in mood too. The MJO is forecast to come out of the Circle Of Death, or COD, and is trying to make a return into Octane 6, which is not such a great octane for a "Big Daddy", but a more favorable position thank Octanes 3 and 4.
Link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml As regards to the 12Z GFS with the Friday night into Saturday storm, what are your predictions? I believe that the models are not picking up on the potential position of the strong high to the northwest at this time. I would not write off this storm yet for the Delaware Valley, and an early guess is 1-2 inches with .1-.2 inches of Freezing Rain with a change to rain but than back to snow. Stay Tuned.